| San Antonio Playoff Preview Authored by Elliot Cole - April 11, 2007 - 6:55 pm
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My, how things change?
After a 112-99 victory over the Golden State Warriors, the Spurs have reeled off 20 wins in 23 games since the break. They’re doing it with defense, giving up a league low 89.6 point per a game with a combination of interior presence and disciplined perimeter players. They also lead the league in point differential (a favorite stat for ESPN’s John Hollinger), winning by an average margin of 9 points a game despite playing in the wild West.
On the offensive side of the ball, they’ve done it with balance. Manu Ginobili has emerged as a favorite for 6th man of the year (Leandro Barbosa being the only player in breathing distance). Tony Parker has retained his consistency and become more of a distributor, increasing his assist totals since a season low 4.7 per a game in January. He’s also shown he can dominate when he needs to, including a 35 point explosion against the Phoenix Suns in a possible playoff preview. Michael Finley finally caught on for the Spurs and has scored double digits in 8 straight games, firmly taking Brent Barry’s spot in the starting lineup after Barry missed several games due to back spasms. Tim Duncan’s increased aggressiveness is also noticeable on both ends of the floor, creating chatter for his Defensive Player of the Year chances.
So with the first round around the corner, it’s time for a playoff preview. Most NBA fans are eagerly awaiting the Suns-Spurs or Spurs-Mavs showdowns, but we’ll get to that if and when the time comes. For now, there are more pressing matters at hand, notably a Western Conference that is stronger than it has been in years. Here’s a breakdown of the Spurs’ possible first round opponents, and what to expect from each potential series:
The Denver Nuggets: By far the most compelling lower seed in the West. Two star players that are barely learning how to play with each other, a run and gun style, and a demonstrative coach. Will they adjust in time to make a run as a lower seed? Iverson and Melo don’t seem to mesh too well on the court, and the Nuggets don’t have the outside shooting to keep the Spurs defense from clogging the lane. Also, the Nuggets have shown a complete failure to stop Manu Ginobili in recent years. Nuggets win one based on star power alone, but too many bad possessions and the lack of ball movement kill their chances in the playoffs. Spurs control tempo, take away easy baskets, and make Melo and Iverson play defense.
Bold Prediction: Spurs in 5
The Los Angeles Lakers – No matter how much a team struggles, they can scare the hell out of anyone with a player like Kobe Bryant. Bryant and Lamar Odom seem to have solid games against the Spurs, and the young core of the Lakers got a taste of the playoffs last year. They have the coaching, the hunger, and the star, but what they don’t have is consistency. Duncan and Parker have a field day against teams with poor interior defense, and Andrew Bynum would average a foul a minute. Look for Bryant to try and take over against Bruce Bowen, leaving his teammates in his shadow. Series would be closer than it should be, but the Lakers don’t have an answer for the experience of the Spurs.
Bold Prediction: Spurs in 6
The Los Angeles Clippers – Something miraculous would have to happen for the Clippers to reach higher than a 7 seed (they are currently 2 and a half games behind the Nuggets and Lakers), but crazier things have happened. There is also the chance that the Spurs could catch Phoenix for the 2 seed, in which case playing the Clips is a possibility.
The Clippers play a rough half court style and have some interior muscle, but their string of injuries has left them at a serious disadvantage. The point guard spot is a weakness, and the chemistry just hasn’t carried over from their 2006 campaign. In their regular season meetings, the Spurs won by a staggering average of 18.5 points a game, based mostly on outside shooting off of Duncan’s passing out of double teams. Don’t expect that to change. (Not so)
Bold prediction: Spurs in 5, maybe a sweep.
Going out on a limb? Not exactly, but the Spurs are looking like the Spurs. Too much experience, too much defense, too much outside shooting. Keep tuned for a preview of the second round.
Elliot can be reached at elliot.cole@yahoo.com. |
