| Bank On The Spurs Authored by Tyler Sherkin - April 1, 2005 - 4:49 pm
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Since Tim Duncan went out with a sprained ankle, the Spurs have gone 3-2, losing their first two and now currently riding a three-game winning streak. Much has been made of his absence and whether or not Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili can keep the Spurs together until he gets back.
Let's put this in perspective; Tim Duncan leads the Spurs in scoring, rebounding, shot blocking and free throws attempted. He's also third in assists. He's a traditional post player who creates lanes to the basket and opens up the perimeter for the shooters. He's a two-time MVP, a 7-time All-Star (no All-Star game in the '99 lockout season), he's been All-Defensive and All-NBA for 7 years running and will almost certainly do it again this year, he joins Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson as the only players in NBA history to be awarded the Finals MVP award in each of their first two appearances in the NBA Finals...
In short, he's what makes the Spurs tick. He does a little of everything, even bringing the ball past the timeline on occasion. How can the Spurs possibly survive without him? You can be certain that the trade at the deadline for Nazr Mohammed has helped some; in the 12 games he's played with the Spurs, though he isn't shooting well (38.3%), he is averaging about 6 points, 5 rebounds and a block in 15.7 minutes per game.
Duncan may be the centerpiece of the Spurs franchise but, thanks to the work of Greg Popovich and R.C. Buford, he is not the only piece. The Spurs roster includes Parker and Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, Nazr Mohammed, they've got Robert Horry, Dion Glover, Brent Barry, Tony Massenburg, the surprising Beno Udrih...
And that doesn't include Devin Brown, who's been having a good season for the Spurs. Before he headed to the injured list, Brown was averaging 7.4 points and 2.6 rebounds in just under 19 minutes per game, another good slasher who is a perimeter threat (37% from downtown, 79.2% from the foul line too). But he's out for now, just like Duncan. Think about that for a second, though; the Spurs are missing a key bench player and Tim Duncan. Did they panic? No. They lost their first two games, sure, but they bounced back in style and are poised to take advantage of a relatively easy end to the season.
They play the Nuggets, Lakers, Clippers, Mavs, Clippers again, Warriors, Blazers, Jazz, Grizzlies for a home-and-home and then the T-Wolves.
It is entirely possible for them to close out the season 8-3 and win 11 of their last 14 games. Yahoo Sports is reporting that the Spurs are optimistic that Duncan will return for the final five games of the regular season so he isn't rusty when the playoffs roll around and if that happens, the Spurs are in no trouble at all.
For the moment though, even assuming Duncan is out for the remainder of the season, even the most pessimistic of outlooks suggests that the Spurs could pull out wins against the Lakers, the Clippers at least once, the Warriors, the Jazz and at least one of the Grizzlies games. That would be a 5-6 record over the remainder of the season and would leave them with a 58-win record and the second seed, which means they would play the Nuggets.
That's not a bad end considering they are missing Tim Duncan and Devin Brown. If Duncan does come back, they'll likely win 8 games, leaving them with a 61-win record but the difference at this point is academic because it is unlikely that the Sonics will catch up to them and steal second place and it is equally unlikely that the Spurs will overtake Phoenix.
The point is that the Spurs will be fine for the rest of the regular season whether Duncan comes back or not. Will they be fine if the can't make it back until a few games into the series against Denver? How much difference will those 5 games really make?
Well, Duncan hasn't played since March 20th and he hasn't been doing full-strength practices either, so he's bound to have lost a little of his edge. Those games will be key to how the Spurs start the series. If Duncan doesn't come back until the second or third game, the Spurs will probably start flat and lose their home court advantage, which would make the series more interesting. Ultimately, I expect the Spurs to win because they're much deeper and have a better system than the Nuggets. It's just easier to win when you can rely on anyone in your lineup to get whatever needs to be done, done. The Spurs are 2-1 against Denver so far in the regular season and play the final game of the season series tonight (April 1st) but there is a big difference between the regular season and the playoffs. The Spurs know it; they've thrived in the postseason while Denver was pretty flat in last year's playoffs.
The reality of the first round series is that it is more a question of how long it will take the Spurs to dismantle the Nuggets and that is entirely dependant on how quickly Duncan gets his feel for the game back. If the Spurs are clicking for the last 3 or 4 games, the Nuggets will be done in 5 games or just swept outright. The Spurs are too good and too experienced to fall to the Nuggets unless they suffer serious injuries between now and then to Parker, Ginobili or Duncan (after he gets back). Barring that, the Spurs will be just fine.
So in the end, what is the impact of Duncan's absence? Well, the Spurs don't really have a shot at the first seed anymore but that doesn't really matter until the finals and they would have been in a tight race with Miami and Phoenix for the best overall record anyway. The difference in first round matchups, Memphis or Denver, is really irrelevant. So in terms of the regular season, the Spurs could probably care less; Duncan gets a chance to rest and heal up other hurts that he hasn't talked about, the kind that every player has at this time of year and get ready for the playoffs. Parker and Ginobili get a chance to see what they can do without Duncan in the middle which will help them down the road when TD is in foul trouble.
In the playoffs? Well, the length of Duncan's absence will determine the beginning of the series but the outcome is almost inevitable.
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