| 2009-10 Season Preview: San Antonio Spurs Authored by Andrew Perna - October 27, 2009 - 7:57 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: +7.1, 8th
Key Additions: Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Keith Bogans
Key Subtractions: Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka
Key Rookies: DeJuan Blair
Probable Starters: Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, Tim Duncan
Point Guard: Tony Parker is faster than a lot of point guards in the NBA and uses his speed better than a majority of the league as well. His ability to penetrate is amazing. When doing so, he can either go up for his own shot, find Tim Duncan close to the basket or kick the ball back out to one of San Antonio’s shooters.
Parker is an efficient offensive player, but his range doesn’t extend to the three-point line. He averaged a career-high 22.0 points and 6.9 assists per game last season while also shooting 50.6% from the field. He has started all but seven of the games he has played in the NBA, quite an incredible feat.
Over the course of his career, Parker has improved his foul shot. He hit fewer than 70% of his free throws in two of his first four seasons, but has topped 78% in two of the last four years. As one might expect, his points per 100 possessions (+6.1) is greater than the Spurs’ overall total (+4.2) from last season.
He assisted on 40.1% of the baskets his teammates made while he was on the floor last season, which quantifies his great offensive awareness. He’s on the small side, but is a good defender. Surprisingly, the Spurs were 7-3 in the ten games Parker missed last year.
George Hill played serviceable minutes behind Parker as a rookie, even though it took some time for him to win over coach Gregg Popovich. He made seven starts, during which he was severely overmatched, but showed flashes of solid play. He needs to be more selective with his shots and become a better playmaker.
Swingmen: The Spurs found a gem in Roger Mason, who they’ll pay less than $4 million to be their starting shooting guard. He’s a good shooter and has the ability to create with the basketball, which gives Popovich flexibility. He played significant minutes at all three perimeter spots last season. He made 166 three-pointers last year, good for 10th in the league. He shot 42.1% from downtown, second to only Matt Bonner (44%) among the team’s returning players.
Manu Ginobili appeared in just 44 games in 2008-09 and the Spurs obviously missed him severely. If his ankle injury lingers, San Antonio could struggle to get out of the first round once again. They need his scoring punch on the floor for 30 minutes a game, even if he continues to come off the bench.
Like Parker, Ginobili is excellent at attacking the basket. He doesn’t need his point guard to get him the ball because he can create his own offense, although he is very unselfish as well. His impact isn’t just offensive either; he can be a very good defender. He’s posted double-digits in Win Shares in three of the last five seasons.
Obviously, the biggest addition in town is Richard Jefferson, who came over from the Bucks is a fleecing of a trade. He’ll make close to $30 million over the next two seasons and his presence represents a change of pace in San Antonio, as they are spending money with only winning on their minds. He’s a great athlete, although he has the skills to get by without using solely his athleticism.
He gets great lift on his shots, making them hard to block. When on the floor with Parker and Ginobili, the trio will absolutely dominate opposing defenses on the fast break. Perhaps most importantly, Jefferson has appeared in 82 games in back-to-back seasons. Ginobili and Parker both missed double-digit games last year.
San Antonio added Keith Bogans as well, making their swingman rotation deeper than ever before with Michael Finley and Malik Hairston in the mix as well.
Frontcourt: For the first time in a very long time Tim Duncan has a solid post player alongside him in Antonio McDyess, who opted to sign with the Spurs for their professionalism and title hopes. He’s a great veteran and has learned to get by on intelligence instead of the freak athleticism he used to excel early on in his career.
He averaged a double-double in the second half with Detroit last year, but it’s unlikely that he’ll replicate those numbers with the Spurs. Quite simply, he won’t have to with all the weapons around him. He has a nice mid-range jump shot and hit more than 50% of his attempts in 2009.
Duncan, perhaps the greatest power forward in NBA history, hasn’t lost much of a step heading into his 13th season. He has never averaged fewer than 18.6 points and 10.6 rebounds in a season. Yes, that means twelve consecutive years of double-double averages for the San Antonio mainstay.
With McDyess and rookie DeJuan Blair in town, Popovich could opt to give Duncan some rest. He played 33.6 minutes a night last season, the second lowest total in his illustrious career. He’s nearly a perfect player. He has a mid-range game, is great around the rim, can rebound the basketball and is a great defender. Sure, his range doesn’t extend out quite as far as some modern day big men, but to knock him for that would be just nitpicking.
In addition to McDyess and Duncan, the Spurs have Bonner to stretch the floor and Theo Ratliff to occasionally come in for defensive purposes.
Forecast: Even with all their injury woes, the Spurs won 54 games and finished tied for second in the Western Conference with the Nuggets and Blazers last season. Assuming Ginobili is healthy, along with the additions of McDyess and Jefferson, San Antonio shouldn’t have a problem posting a win total in the mid-50s once again. If all the pieces fall into place, the Lakers are the only team out of their range.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
